Predicting Stocks: Not a Trivial Matter (Medium Article)

Everyone has seen at least once those fancy graphs when it comes to the stock market, yet not everyone understands what it really means, not even experts! Surely, you have probably seen a lot of tutorials on using Time Series Analysis to predict the stock market. In reality, even field experts often have trouble making accurate predictions. The natural question that should come to your mind is “why is it so hard to predict stocks?”. As a little exercise, I decided to put to test my knowledge on Time Series Analysis and attempted to build a prediction model for stocks closing prices of a certain company, call it X (for legal reasons), based on three months of historical data. What were the results? Check out this article I wrote on Medium with a fully-worked example with a real dataset using ARMA time series models on R!



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